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Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts


Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts
  • Author : Stéphane Vannitsem
  • Publisher : Elsevier
  • Release : 2018-05-17
  • ISBN : 9780128122488
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts


Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts
  • Author : Stéphane Vannitsem
  • Publisher :
  • Release : 2018-06
  • ISBN : 0128123729
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together contributed chapters by international subject-matter experts, describing the current state-of-the-art in statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts and illustrating the use of these methods in several important applications, including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecasts as an extension of the use of statistical corrections and their use for post-processing traditional deterministic forecasts.

Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences


Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences
  • Author : Daniel S. Wilks
  • Publisher : Academic Press
  • Release : 2011-07-04
  • ISBN : 9780123850232
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Third Edition, explains the latest statistical methods used to describe, analyze, test, and forecast atmospheric data. This revised and expanded text is intended to help students understand and communicate what their data sets have to say, or to make sense of the scientific literature in meteorology, climatology, and related disciplines. In this new edition, what was a single chapter on multivariate statistics has been expanded to a full six chapters on this important topic. Other chapters have also been revised and cover exploratory data analysis, probability distributions, hypothesis testing, statistical weather forecasting, forecast verification, and time series analysis. There is now an expanded treatment of resampling tests and key analysis techniques, an updated discussion on ensemble forecasting, and a detailed chapter on forecast verification. In addition, the book includes new sections on maximum likelihood and on statistical simulation and contains current references to original research. Students will benefit from pedagogical features including worked examples, end-of-chapter exercises with separate solutions, and numerous illustrations and equations. This book will be of interest to researchers and students in the atmospheric sciences, including meteorology, climatology, and other geophysical disciplines. Accessible presentation and explanation of techniques for atmospheric data summarization, analysis, testing and forecasting Many worked examples End-of-chapter exercises, with answers provided

Climate Change and Regional Local Responses


Climate Change and Regional Local Responses
  • Author : Pallav Ray
  • Publisher : BoD – Books on Demand
  • Release : 2013-05-22
  • ISBN : 9789535111320
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Understanding climate change requires analysis of its effects in specific contexts, and the case studies in this volume offer examples of such issues. Its chapters cover tropical cyclones in East Asia, study of a fossil in Brazils Araripe Basin and the fractal nature of band-thickness in an iron formation of Canadas Northwest Territories. One chapter examines the presence of trace elements and palynomorphs in the sediments of a tropical urban pond. Examples of technologies used include RS- GIS to map lineaments for groundwater targeting and sustainable water-resource management, the ALADIN numerical weather-prediction model used to forecast weather and use of grids in numerical weather and climate models. Finally, one chapter models sea level rises resulting from ice sheets melting.

Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting


Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting
  • Author : Qingyun Duan
  • Publisher :
  • Release :
  • ISBN : 364240457X
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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" . . . This handbook offers unrivalled coverage of today's cutting-edge techniques in flood and weather prediction. The ensemble technique, which generates multiple forecasts from differing initial parameters, is a high-profile research target with the potential to enhance the accuracy of forecasting and reduce the loss of life and damage to property caused by riverine floods, violent weather systems, and longer-term weather problems such as droughts" -- publisher.